International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management 2018
Analyzing Risks in Public-Private-Partnership Projects: An Integrated Model of Sensitive Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
Publication: ICCREM 2018: Construction Enterprises and Project Management
ABSTRACT
Compared with traditional financing mode of construction, public-private-partnership (PPP) mode has the great opportunity that private enterprises develop rapidly and solved the shortcomings that the amount of infrastructure investment is large and governments lack funds. Thus PPP mode is being adapted extensively. The keys to successfully implement PPP mode are effectively identifying and analyzing risks in PPP projects, in order to achieve the risk management of PPP projects. The research is aimed to establish a risk analysis model of PPP projects combining the sensitive analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Then it uses a real case “Shijiazhuang International Exhibition Center” to verify this model and proposes strategies to deal with the main risks. The result of this case study proved effectiveness of the proposed model, which can be used in further risk analysis of PPP projects.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51378160) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0701904).
REFERENCES
Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S.M. and Seyrafian-pour, H. (2010). “Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: a fuzzy multi attribute decision making model.” Expert Systems with Applications, 37(2010), 575-586.
Ghorbani, A., Ravanshadnia, M. and Nobakht, M.B. (2014). “A survey of risks in public-private-partnership highway projects in Iran.” International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management, (11), 482-492.
Guo, J.Y. (2016) “Analysis and identification of influencing factors of social risks in traffic PPP projects.” Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, (6), 88-93. (in Chinese).
Li, J. and Zou, P.X.W. (2015). “Fuzzy AHP-based risk assessment methodology for PPP projects.” Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 137(12), 1205-1209. (in Chinese).
Li, W.G. and Shi, Y.R. (2017). “Risk Factors Analysis of PPP project of pension agency based on ISM.” 3rd International Conference on Information Management (ICIM), Chengdu, China, 51-55.
Liu, X.N., Wang, J.B., Zhao, H. and Chen, X.S. (2011) “Comprehensive evaluation of financing risk of PPP project in urban rail transit based on AHP and improved gray relational theory.” Project Management Technology, (8), 43-46. (in Chinese).
Mo, L.Q. (2016). “Infrastructure PPP project financing risk analysis and case study.” Journal of Engineering Management, (5), 71-76. (in Chinese).
Wang, L. (2016). “Research on risk factors and sharing policy of PPP project.” Times Finance, (36), 232-233. (in Chinese).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ICCREM 2018: Construction Enterprises and Project Management
Pages: 1 - 9
Editors: Yaowu Wang, Professor, Harbin Institute of Technology, Yimin Zhu, Professor, Louisiana State University, Geoffrey Q. P. Shen, Professor, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, and Mohamed Al-Hussein, Professor, University of Alberta
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8175-2
Copyright
© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Aug 8, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.