International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management 2018
Study on the Real Estate Bubble Early Warning from the Perspective of System Dynamics
Publication: ICCREM 2018: Analysis of Real Estate and the Construction Industry
ABSTRACT
Real estate system is a complex giant system. In order to simulate the internal causal feedback relationship in the real estate market as well as the external environment impact on the real estate market, this paper builds the housing system dynamic model and then simulates, evaluates, analyzes, and forecasts the residential market in Hangzhou. At last, this paper studies the application of the housing system dynamic model in the early warning of real estate bubble. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) There are three stages of the development of the real estate market in Hangzhou in the next 50 years: rapid development stage (2010—2020), medium-speed development stage (2020—2038), stable development stage (after 2038). (2) Housing price income ratio of the residential market in Hangzhou decreases year by year but always at a high level, which sends a signal that bubbles in the real estate market in Hangzhou is relatively large. (3) There are many demand speculators in the real estate market in Hangzhou, if without control, the number of the demand speculators will increase.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
ICCREM 2018: Analysis of Real Estate and the Construction Industry
Pages: 116 - 124
Editors: Yaowu Wang, Professor, Harbin Institute of Technology, Yimin Zhu, Professor, Louisiana State University, Geoffrey Q. P. Shen, Professor, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, and Mohamed Al-Hussein, Professor, University of Alberta
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8174-5
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© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Aug 8, 2018
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