Asset Renewal Forecasting for Water Main Replacement Program

The primary purpose of this paper is to highlight the data driven approach used to forecast asset performance for a water utility (Des Moines Water Works). This approach was used to develop multiple scenarios with forecasted service levels with the end goal of sustainability sizing and resourcing a water main replacement program. Statistical analysis of main breaks combined with pipe asset information can be a valuable tool for planning the rehabilitation and replacement program of a water distribution system. The purpose of this analysis was to leverage readily available data to determine which factors impact deterioration in each of the systems and quantify the relative strength of each factor. The intent was to advance our understanding of primary drivers of deterioration in each system. This information was then used to identify the useful life of each system, size sustainable renewal budgets, and prioritize condition assessment and renewal resources.