World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018
Uncertainty in Drought Reporting across Different Spatial Scales
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Watershed Management, Irrigation and Drainage, and Water Resources Planning and Management
ABSTRACT
This study demonstrates how geospatial analysis tools can be effectively used to improve drought monitoring and management. Understanding spatial variation of drought is vital in drought monitoring and management. Drought indices, generally derived from station-wide meteorological and hydrological data are commonly used to monitor and assess droughts. These indices are generally reported for specific spatial scales such as climate division, county, hydrological unit etc. This study involves spatial interpolation of drought data and quantification of the uncertainty in drought reporting at different spatial scales. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) with one month time step, a metrological drought index, from 57 stations across the State of North Dakota (ND), U.S., was used. Two interpolation methods, inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary Kriging (OK) were evaluated for their performance using selected cross-validation parameters. The variability within each of the three spatial scales: county, climate division, and state were quantified based on interpolated values. This study found that (a) IDW with power one, and (b) OK with circular semivariogram model can be used for interpolation of the selected data obtained from the current distribution of stations. Significant variation of drought was found within each spatial scale. Predicted values of SPI were compared with reported values from commonly used drought reporting sources. A discussion of uncertainty in drought reporting at spatial units of different size is also included.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge: (i) North Dakota Water Recourses Research Institute (ND WRRI) Fellowship Program funded by the U.S. Geological Survey, and (ii) North Dakota State University Graduate School Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship Program for their financial support to this study in the form of Fellowship to the first author.
7. REFERENCES
Akhtari, R., Morid, S., Mahdian, M. H., and Smakhtin, V. (2009). “Assessment of areal interpolation methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI drought indices.” International Journal of Climatology, 29(1), 135–145.
Ali, M. G., Younes, K., Esmaeil, A., and Fatemeh, T. (2011). “Assessment of geostatistical methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI Drought Indices.” World Applied Sciences Journal, 15(4), 474–482.
Chang, T. J. (1991). “Investigation of precipitation droughts by use of kriging method.” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-Asce, 117(6), 935–943.
Chang, T. J., and Teoh, C. B. (1995). “Use of the kriging method for studying characteristics of ground-water droughts.” Water Resources Bulletin, 31(6), 1001–1007.
Dai, A. (2011). “Drought under global warming: a review.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 2(1), 45–65.
Deutsch, C., and Journel, A. (1998). Geostatistical software library and user’s guide. Oxford University Press. New York, USA.
Dow, K., Murphy, R. L., and Carbone, G. J. (2009). “Consideration of user needs and spatial accuracy in drought mapping.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45(1), 187–197.
Duncan, L. L., Perrone, D., Jacobi, J. H., and Hornberger, G. M. (2015). “Drought Planning and Management: Using High Spatial Resolution as Part of the Solution.” Environmental Science & Technology, 49(5), 2639–2647.
Fontaine, M. M., Steinemann, A. C., and Hayes, M. J. (2014). “State Drought Programs and Plans: Survey of the Western United States.” Natural Hazards Review, 15(1), 95–99.
Goovaerts, P. (1997). Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation. Oxford University Press. New York U.S.
Goovaerts, P. (1999). “Geostatistics in soil science: state-of-the-art and perspectives.” Geoderma, 89(1–2), 1–45.
Guttman, N. B. (1998). “Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the standardized precipitation index.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 113–121.
Hayes, M. J., Svoboda, M. D., Wilhite, D. A., and Vanyarkho, O. V. (1999). “Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80(3), 429–438.
Heim, R. R. (2002). “A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), 1149–1165.
Johnston, K., Ver Hoef, J. M., Krivoruchko, K., and Lucas, N. (2001). Using ArcGIS geostatistical analyst, Environmental Systems Research, Redlands, Redlands, CA, U.S., pp.316
Karl, T. R. (1983). “Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States.” Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 22(8), 1356–1366.
Keyantash, J., and Dracup, J. A. (2002). “The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), 1167–1180.
Kravchenko, A., and Bullock, D. G. (1999). “A comparative study of interpolation methods for mapping soil properties.” Agronomy Journal, 91(3), 393–400.
Krige, D. (1951). “A statistical approach to some mine valuation and allied problems on the Witwatersrand.” J. Chem. Metall. Min. Soc. S. Afr., 52, 119–139
Krige, D. (1966). “Two-dimensional weighted moving average trend surfaces for ore-evaluation.” Journal of the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 66, 13–38.
Oliver, M. A., and Webster, R. (2014). “A tutorial guide to geostatistics: Computing and modelling variograms and kriging.” Catena, 113, 56–69.
Krivoruchko, K. (2011). Spatial statistical data analysis for GIS users. Environmental Systems Research, Redlands, Redlands, CA, U.S., pp. 928.
Leelaruban, N., Oduor, P. G., Akyuz, A., Shaik, S., and Padmanabhan, G. (2012). “Leveraging a spatio–temporal drought severity and coverage index with crop yield modelled as a stochastic process.” International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2(3), 219–236.
Li, J., and Heap, A. D. (2008). “A review of spatial interpolation methods for environmental scientists.” Geoscience Australia, Record 2008/23, pp. 137.
Li, J., and Heap, A. D. (2011). “A review of comparative studies of spatial interpolation methods in environmental sciences: Performance and impact factors.” Ecological Informatics, 6(3–4), 228–241.
Li, J., and Heap, A. D. (2014). “Spatial interpolation methods applied in the environmental sciences: A review.” Environmental Modelling & Software, 53, 173–189.
Ma, M., Ren, L., Singh, V. P., Tu, X., Jiang, S., and Liu, Y. (2015). “Evaluation and application of the SPDI-JDI for droughts in Texas, USA.” Journal of Hydrology, 521, 34–45.
McKee, T.B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J. (1993). “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time steps.” Proc., 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA, USA. 179–183
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J. (1995). “Drought monitoring with multiple time scales.” Proc., 9th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Dallas, TX, USA. 233–236.
Mishra, A. K., and Singh, V. P. (2010). “A review of drought concepts.” Journal of Hydrology, 391(1–2), 204–216.
Negreiros, J., Painho, M., Aguilar, F., and Aguilar, M. (2010). “Geographical information systems principles of ordinary kriging interpolator.” Journal of Applied Sciences, 10, 852–867.
Oliver, M. A., and Webster, R. (2014). “A tutorial guide to geostatistics: Computing and modelling variograms and kriging.” Catena, 113, 56–69.
Palmer, W. C. (1965). “Meteorological drought.”Research Paper No. 45, US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, USA, 1–58.
Palmer, W. C. (1968). “Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index.” Weatherwise, 21, 156–161.
Qin, Y., Yang, D., Lei, H., Xu, K., and Xu, X. (2015). “Comparative analysis of drought based on precipitation and soil moisture indices in Haihe basin of North China during the period of 1960–2010.” Journal of Hydrology, 526, 55–67.
Robinson, T. P., and Metternicht, G. (2006). “Testing the performance of spatial interpolation techniques for mapping soil properties.” Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 50(2), 97–108.
Shafer, B., and Dezman, L. (1982). “Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas.” Proc., Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, Reno, Nevada, USA. 164–175.
Steinemann, A. C., Hayes, M. J., and Cavalcanti, L. F. N. (2005). “Drought indicators and triggers.” Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, D. A. Wilhite, ed. CRC Press, 71–92.
Svoboda, M., Hayes, M., and Wood, D. (2012). Standardized precipitation index user guide. World Meteorological Organization, Tech. Report WMO-1090, Geneva Geneva, Switzerland. pp.24
Svoboda, M. D., Fuchs, B. A., Poulsen, C. C., and Nothwehr, J. R. (2015). “The drought risk atlas: Enhancing decision support for drought risk management in the United States.” Journal of Hydrology, 526, 274–286.
Webster, R., and Oliver, M. A. (2007). Geostatistics for environmental scientists, 2nd Edn. Wiley: Chichester, UK.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Watershed Management, Irrigation and Drainage, and Water Resources Planning and Management
Pages: 295 - 307
Editor: Sri Kamojjala, Las Vegas Valley Water District
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8140-0
Copyright
© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 31, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.