Chapter
Mar 29, 2018
Economic Feasibility Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems Using Bayesian Networks
Authors: Mahmoud Shakouri, M.ASCE [email protected], and Hyun Woo Lee, M.ASCE [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: Construction Research Congress 2018
Abstract
The economic viability of photovoltaic (PV) systems is subject to spatial and temporal uncertainties that can pose significant financial risks to the investors of such systems. This paper presents a decision-making model using Bayesian networks to assess the economic viability of PV systems, by considering the inherent spatial and temporal uncertainties and their impacts on the annual electricity generation of a PV system. The application of the proposed model is shown in a 6.5 kWh PV system installed on a house located in Corvallis, OR. Results show that by using the Bayesian networks, the probability of different states of electricity generation can be estimated and used for quantitative decision making. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate how the key factors in the PV system can affect the annual electricity generation. The proposed model contributes to the body of knowledge in the valuation of renewable energy investments through the application of Bayesian networks. It is expected that the proposed model can help investors in PV systems make scientific and informed decisions.
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© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Mar 29, 2018
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Assistant Professor, Dept. of Industrial Technology, Univ. of Nebraska Kearney, 130F Otto Olsen, 2508 12th Ave., Kearney, NE 68849. E-mail: [email protected]
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Construction Management, Univ. of Washington, 120 Architecture Hall, Campus Box 351610, Seattle, WA 98195. E-mail: [email protected]
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.