Emergence of Resilience from Infrastructure Dynamics: A Simulation Framework for Theory Building

The objective of this study was to create an integrated simulation framework to examine the dynamics that affect the long-term resilience of infrastructure systems. The proposed framework captures three phenomena that shape the dynamics of infrastructure systems: (1) deterioration of physical networks; (2) renewal and adaptation decision-making processes of agencies; and (3) chronic and acute stressors. Accordingly, a complex systems approach was adopted to examine the long-term resilience of infrastructure based on understanding of performance regimes as well as critical points at which shifts in the performance regime of infrastructure occur under chronic and acute stressors. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a water distribution network where the system resilience was examined over a 100-year horizon under stressors such as aging infrastructure, population change, and funding constraints. The results identified the effects of internal dynamics and external stressors on the resilience landscape of infrastructure systems. The proposed framework enables building complex system-based theories for a more holistic understanding of infrastructure resilience.