Chapter
May 18, 2017
Probabilistic Shoreline Change Modeling Using Monte Carlo Method
Authors: Yan Ding, Sung-Chan Kim, and Ashley E. FreyAuthor Affiliations
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantify uncertainties of shoreline changes (accretion and erosion) by using Monte Carlo simulations. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and shoreline changes induced by random waves from offshore. A probability density function is developed to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair weather and extreme weather conditions. It produces time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). This will generate uncertainties in prediction of annual maximum shoreline erosions in different return periods (years). The developed Monte Carlo Model for GenCade can be used to assess reliability and uncertainty of prediction in shoreline changes in natural coasts.
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Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Pages: 24 - 34
Copyright
© 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 18, 2017
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Authors
Affiliations
Yan Ding
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Engineer Research & Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180.
Sung-Chan Kim
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Engineer Research & Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180.
Ashley E. Frey
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Engineer Research & Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180.
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.