Wind Load Prediction on Tall Buildings in a Stochastic Framework

It is common practice for wind engineers to develop design load predictions based on wind loads that have been determined from a deterministic set of building properties, wind tunnel results and description of wind climate. This many-to-one relationship (many inputs, one load) has thus far served the wind engineering community well as it reduces a complicated problem into a simple account of loads and effects. A stochastic approach considers uncertainty in the design inputs, such as natural frequencies and damping ratio. While this type of approach has been described previously in the literature, the current approach provides a framework in which wind loads can be predicted in practical design scenarios. The current study focuses on tall, slender buildings in an effort to better understand the impact that uncertainties in extreme wind climate, damping ratio and natural frequency have on predicted wind loads, and how these uncertainties contribute to the overall reliability of the structure. A method is described that allows for the direct calculation of probability of failure based on a stochastic relationship between load and resistance.