International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management 2016
Influence of Policy Adjustment on Housing Prices: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data since 2008
Publication: ICCREM 2016: BIM Application and Off-Site Construction
ABSTRACT
Using quarterly data from 2008: Q1 to 2014:Q4 and VAR model, the statically empirical results show that the influence of policy adjustments on house prices is opposite to economic theory, which means there are deep-seated problems about policy structure and design. Based on impulse response function and variance decomposition method, dynamic empirical analysis draws conclusions in three ways. First, response of house prices to total supply of state-owned construction land is the weakest, but its contribution to the fluctuation of house prices is much more remarkable. Second, house prices responds to real interest rate and money supply most sensitively, both of which contribute to house prices most remarkably and show obviously complementary effect. Third, the mutual relationship between house prices and the ratio of house investment below 90 squares to total house investment is not as high as the government expected, which means “90/70” policy is invalid. The paper finally suggests that government should push on the construction of explicit response mechanisms of interest rates to macro-economy and real estate market, improve the marketization level of interest rates, broaden the framework of fixed investment policy, optimize the capital source and structure of fixed investment, design more effective policy tools to promote marketing process of land supply and strengthen response of land policy to structural issues of real estate market.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Kindly thank Ph.D. Shilling ZHENG for critically reviewing the manuscript.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
ICCREM 2016: BIM Application and Off-Site Construction
Pages: 1093 - 1106
Editors: Yaowu Wang, Ph.D., Professor, Harbin Institute of Technology, Mohamed Al-Hussein, Ph.D., Professor, University of Alberta, Geoffrey Q. P. Shen, Ph.D., Professor, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, and Yimin Zhu, Ph.D., Professor, Louisiana State University
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8027-4
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© 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Aug 14, 2017
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