Assessment of CMIP5 Multi-Model Dataset to Evaluate Impacts on the Future Regional Water Resources of South Florida

South Florida is home to about 8 million people. The region is characterized by low relief, flat topography, and hydrology driven by a delicate balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration, high surface-water and groundwater interaction, presence of urbanized areas along the coast, significant agricultural areas, and a protected natural area—the Everglades. The water resources of this complex region is managed by the South Florida Water Management District (District). The district operates this system for flood control, water supply, water quality treatment, and ecosystem restoration. The hydrology of this region is driven mainly by rainfall and evapotranspiration. Thus, knowledge of changes in future climate parameters that affect these hydrologic components is critical for (i) projecting water resources availability, (ii) identifying water management system vulnerability, and (iii) designing adaptation measures. In an attempt to evaluate future water resources availability of the region, downscaled daily bias-corrected and constructed analogs of precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature projections from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset were analyzed. Data analysis included (i) identification of future trends in precipitation and temperature based on a total of 119 models and three climate forcing scenarios, (ii) evaluation of future seasonal water availability of the region, and (iii) assessing the impact of changes in precipitation, temperature and sea level on south Florida’s water management system. The results of this study will be beneficial for water resources planners to design climate change adaptation measures that enhance the resiliency of the water management system.