Chapter
Sep 21, 2015
Road Traffic Accident Forecasts Based on Cointegration Analysis
Publication: ICTE 2015
Abstract
Road traffic fatalities account for the maximum portion of total production accident fatalities in China, although they exhibit steady annual reductions in recent years. Road traffic accident forecast is a core component of a target setting which proves to be an effective measure to improve road safety by the best-performing countries. In this paper, a traffic accident prediction model aimed to set road safety targets is proposed. Based on cointegration analysis of Chinese crash and economic data, the model avoids spurious regression and shows a satisfactory precision. The prediction results can be a good reference to policymakers on their target setting.
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Published In
ICTE 2015
Pages: 2993 - 2998
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Sep 21, 2015
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Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. E-mail: [email protected]
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. E-mail: [email protected]
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.