Potential Conflict Number Prediction of an Intersection’s Mixed Traffic Flow

In order to reduce the observation time of the intersection traffic conflict and decrease the difficulty of observation, meanwhile achieve the effect of actual measurement, so based on the relevant information, the objective can be realized through the method of predicted the number of potential conflicts. The paper mainly demonstrated the conflict point of mixed traffic flow and predicted the probability of potential conflict about the non-signal intersection in the view of the method of probability statistics, random process, regression analysis and two-dimension table, the theory of traffic flow and traffic conflict. The paper observed the typical intersection in Xi’an so as to test the reliability of the prediction model. The number of prediction conflicts contrasted with the representative predicted value in china, the number of actual conflicts and simulation result. The result shows that the predicted value is a little more than actual value, but contrast with other prediction model, the predicted result is more closer the actual value, so the prediction model can be used to evaluated the traffic safety of intersection instead of the number of actual conflicts.