Chapter
Jan 10, 2020
Chapter 5
Extreme Precipitation Analysis with Serial Dependency for a Changing Climate
Publication: Engineering Methods for Precipitation under a Changing Climate
Abstract
This chapter focuses on nonstationary models, where precipitation is assumed to differ from previous years, making them the most representative and suitable for addressing needs relating to a changing climate. Whether serial dependency is considered yields two different models: nonstationary model without serial dependency and nonstationary model with serial dependency. Nonstationary models with serial dependency describe the effect of climate change better than those without serial dependency, which means higher accuracy. The chapter also presents a comparative case study of extreme precipitation in three selected areas: New York City, the Washington, DC, metropolitan area, and San Francisco. The comparison focuses on studying the differences in extreme precipitation among the three cities, analyzing new extreme precipitation events with a focus on climate change, and studying the effect of serial dependency on different events over varying periods.
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jan 10, 2020
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Huiling Hu
University of Maryland
Bilal M. Ayyub, Ph.D., P.E., Dist. M.ASCE
University of Maryland
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