Accident Analysis Based on Traffic System Stability in Third-Tier City of Developing Country

Traffic safety is one of the principal factors considered by whom accessing the traffic system, such as drivers and pedestrian. Intending to reduce the probability of traffic accidents in the process of access, this study elucidates a new prospective on an accident analysis from a view of considering various accident-related factors as a system, including three major parts as road environment, traffic facilities, and vehicles. The instability of traffic system indicates the accident potential in certain system. By investigating the correlation between accident and relative factors, describing the system instability and comparing different systems, it is accessible to find out the cause of traffic accidents in urban road network of third-tier cities in China. After analyzing accident statistics from 2006 to 2010 in Urumqi, China, six types of urban roadways accidents are selected as a dependent variable, meanwhile, independent variables include road environment, traffic facilities, and vehicle types. By analyzing the impact degree of each factor on single crash type based on binary logistic model, the weight of each factor in the system is decided. Then, a multimodal logistic model is built to describe the accident probability distribution in different systems with different combinations of factors. Based on the result of binary and multinomial logistic regression, it is approachable to reach an understanding of system instability and analysis the cause of traffic accidents in urban traffic systems in third-tier cities of developing country.