Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties
Publication: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management
Abstract
In this paper, we look at the robustness of connected critical infrastructures under a systems-of-systems framework, taking into account:(1) the dependencies and interdependencies among the components of a critical infrastructure and between different critical infrastructures, respectively; (2) the variability of the performance of each component by means of a multistate model; and, (3) the epistemic uncertainty in the transition probability between different component states by means of probability intervals. We adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree - Dynamic Master Logic Diagram for system modelling and we perform a quantitative assessment of the systems-of-systems performance by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and a gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition system connected to the gas network.
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Jul 7, 2014
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Architectural engineering
- Building systems
- Case studies
- Continuum mechanics
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Ecosystems
- Electric power
- Electrical systems
- Energy engineering
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Environmental engineering
- Infrastructure
- Infrastructure resilience
- Lifeline systems
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Motion (dynamics)
- Probability
- Research methods (by type)
- Solid mechanics
- Trees
- Uncertainty principles
- Vegetation
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