Chapter
Jul 7, 2014
Subjective Probabilities to Integrate Uncertainties in Levee Performance Assessment
Authors: M. Vuillet [email protected], L. Peyras [email protected], C. Carvajal [email protected], D. Serre [email protected], and Y. Diab [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management
Abstract
Levee risk control is crucial. Regrettably, these long linear structures are badly maintained most of the time, showing signs of weaknesses on numerous occasions. Only imperfect information is usually available. In this particular context, a probability-based model is suggested for evaluating the levee performance, taking into account expert engineer's uncertain assessments in a probabilistic format. After a brief presentation of the development of a levee deterministic performance evaluation model, we describe in greater details an original approach based on subjective probability implemented to take into account uncertain levee performance assessments and the use of sensitive coefficient for decision aid.
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jul 7, 2014
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ASCE Technical Topics:
- Continuum mechanics
- Design (by type)
- Disaster risk management
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Hydraulic engineering
- Hydraulic structures
- Levees and dikes
- Linear functions
- Mathematical functions
- Mathematics
- Models (by type)
- Motion (dynamics)
- Optimization models
- Probability
- Risk management
- Solid mechanics
- Structural design
- Structural models
- Structural reliability
- Uncertainty principles
- Water and water resources
Authors
Affiliations
Université Paris-Est, Ecole des Ingénieurs de la ville de Paris, 80 rue Rébeval 75019 Paris, France. E-mail: [email protected]
Irstea, Unité de recherché Ouvrages Hydrauliques et hydrologie, 3275 route Cézanne - CS 40061 - 13 182 Aix en Provence, France. E-mail: [email protected]
Irstea, Unité de recherché Ouvrages Hydrauliques et hydrologie, 3275 route Cézanne - CS 40061 - 13 182 Aix en Provence, France. E-mail: [email protected]
Rescuesolution RESCUE Solutions SAS, Bagneux, France. E-mail: [email protected]
Université Paris-Est, Ecole des Ingénieurs de la ville de Paris, 80 rue Rébeval 75019 Paris, France; Université Paris-Est, Laboratoire Eau Environnement et Systèmes Urbains - Département Génie Urbain, 6 et 8 avenue Blaise Pascal - Cité Descartes - Champs sur Marne 77455 Marne la Vallée CEDEX 2, France. E-mail: [email protected]
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