Probabilistic Methodology for Quantifying Regional Risk Profiles from Sea Level Rise

Likely global climate trends and the consequent global sea level rise, combined with potentially increased rates of extreme storms, necessitate the reconsideration of current planning, engineering and management practices of infrastructure. Recent storms, such as the 2012 hurricane Sandy, resulted in inundation of coastal areas, flooding of tunnels and subway stations, power loss, and shutdown of nuclear power plants. Risks from such storms entail significant uncertainties. Increasing resilience to disasters requires bold decisions and actions that may pit short-term interests against longer-term goals. Quantitatively assessing these risks requires the development of spatial risk profiles based on:(1) hazard likelihood assessment; (2) scenario identification; (3) consequence and criticality assessment using inventories of assets along coastal areas, particularly of population centers; (4) vulnerability and inundation assessment; and (5) benefit-cost analysis to manage risks and enhance infrastructure and community resilience. The paper focuses on the Washington, DC area. However, the methodology can be used to examine other regions.