An Application of Cloud Focus Theory in Assessment for Ship Oil-Spill Risk

As ship oil-spill has become one of the most important factors incurring ocean pollution, it is important to predict and evaluate the risks of ship oil-spill by scientific methods. The paper identifies risk factors via analyzing historical data and expert experience in terms of man-machine-environment and builds an evaluation model of the risk of ship oil-spill based on cloud focus theory. The application of cloud focus theory quantitatively evaluates the risk of ship oil-spill and confirms the risk level of ship oil-spill. Finally, the model has been applied to NingBo-ZhouShan port waters, resulting that the risk level of ship oil-spill in these waters is between lower and very low, more inclining to very low. The work has a certain reference value for making an emergency plan of ship oil-spill in some waters.