Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Runoff in the Upper Sind River Basin, India, Using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting

Upper Sind River basin is one of the important river basins for agricultural dominant activities in India. Due to the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change, Upper Sind river basinisfacing water scarcity. A semi-distributed model SWAT was selected for effectively managing the water resources. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program. Results showed that p-factor was 0.73 and r-factor was 0.42 in calibration period (1992-2000) while p-factor was 0.42 and r-factor was 0.36 in the validation period (2001-2005). When values of p-factor and r-factor are accepted, further goodness of fit was quantified by the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient between observed and final best simulated data. Results indicated that R2 was 0.82 and NS was 0.80 in calibration period, while R2 was 0.96 and NS was 0.93 in the validation period. Outcomes of calibration and uncertainty analysis were satisfactory.