Quantifying the Domestic Water Demand Projection Related with Climate Projection

The projection of domestic water demand is an essential but uncertain aspect of water supply planning. The estimation of projected domestic water demand usually depends on several variables such as demographic, socioeconomic, and climatic data. The scientific community has focused largely on the effects of climate change on water supply planning but to the utility community, water demand and regulatory projections may be as important or more. This analysis explores the uncertainty of water demand projections and the relative contribution to the planning context in lieu of climate change and possible regulatory change. The uncertainty estimations are evaluated by a Bayesian framework method to quantify the projected domestic water demand uncertainty. The approach is applied to water supply systems to county and city level in Texas and Georgia, respectively. The results are expected to answer questions like how uncertain is current methodology regarding water demand projection, how can the information of uncertainty be used by decision makers, and how likely will the information affect the water planning decision.