Application of Multi-Objective Optimization for Urban Water Resource Systems in Presence of Climate Change
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013: Showcasing the Future
Abstract
Future climate change presents a significant challenge to the planning and management of urban water supply systems. A number of studies have been conducted in the past decade on the hydrologic impacts of climate change. Characteristic of these studies is a difficult-to-quantify uncertainty with respect to the availability of future water resources. This study considers the issue of identifying Pareto-optimal solutions for urban water supply that are robust in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is based on the simulation of five plausible future climate scenarios to allow expected performance to be traded off against the variability in performance. A case study demonstrates the feasibility of this approach for a complex urban water supply system. The primary objective is to minimize the expected present worth of costs associated with infrastructure decisions, operating rules, and drought contingency plans. By introducing a second objective that minimizes the difference in present worth costs across future climate scenarios, the trade-off between efficiency and robustness is identified. The results show that a significant change in investment and operating strategy occurs when the decision maker expresses a stronger preference for robustness.
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© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jul 8, 2013
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