Successful Validation of a Predicted Drought Year in California

Using recently uncovered association of analogous orbital forcings of the Earth and Moon with similar hydrological conditions on earth, water year 2012 was predicted to be a drought year in California. The prediction followed a previous work that analyzed precipitation data of 1976 and 1994, which were one Saros cycle of about 18 years apart, and reviewed water year 2012's projected orbital pathways of the Earth and Moon, which were obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). According to the California Department of Water Resources' water year type classification of Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, and Critically Dry water year types, both 1976 and 1994 were Critically Dry years in both the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys of California. Water year 2012 precipitation data at a cross-section of stations throughout the state as well as estimated natural flows of eight major rivers in California showed dry hydrological conditions. This paper presents the results of the analyses of correlations between statewide precipitation data of 1976, 1994, and 2012 and illustrates a successful validation of the previously projected drought condition in California. The result is the first successful validation of the utility of this novel finding that may help us for a longer-range prediction of hydrological conditions on earth. The paper points to the need for continued validation studies globally in the coming years and the utility of the finding for sustainable water resources engineering and other applications.