Hydro and Wind Power Complementarity and Scenarization in Brazil

This paper presents a study on the temporal correlation between the hydrological regime and the behavior of winds in the main regions of Brazil. Currently, the wind power participation in Brazilian energy is still relatively very small, with 1.3% of the total installed capacity of the system. The operation planning of the power system uses a deterministic forecast of wind power production based on expected average values and only the stochasticity of the inflows are considered. In a relatively near future, participation of wind generation in the country will tend to be much more significant. The impacts of winds seasonality in the operation of the electrical system can be addressed by generating scenarios that preserve the spatial and temporal correlation between the sources that might be applied to improve existing models for planning system operation such as HIDROTERM, SolverSIN, and NEWAVE. The proposed methodology studies the energy complementarity between wind and hydro sources, measuring the intensity of seasonal and annual correlation in the major country subsystems. The scenarios can be obtained through autoregressive multivariate models applied to the time series of wind and inflows of the major subsystems of the country. The product of this work is intended to provide input data considering wind stochasticity into decision support systems used for planning the operation of the Brazilian National Interconnected Power System.