Chapter
Jul 8, 2013
We Can, But Should We? PMF Frequency Estimates
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013: Showcasing the Future
Abstract
Risk-informed approaches require loading curves for hazards including seismic and hydrologic loading. Current design standards for dam safety are based on the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). Numerous studies have been completed attempting to place an annual chance exceedance (ACE) on the PMF. The results of these efforts range from about 2x10-4 to 1X10-9, with the second frequency being well beyond what is thought credible in the current literature. This raises the question: We can mathematically extend frequency curves out to 10-9, but should we? This paper will discuss the uncertainty associated with these estimates, the variation in these estimates, and why estimating the ACE for the PMF may not be a prudent effort.
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© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jul 8, 2013
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Risk Management Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1616 Capitol Avenue, Omaha, NE 68102-4901. E-mail: [email protected]
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