Realization of Sea Level Rise Using Climate Variables Considering Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change has highly affected the natural water system as well as the ocean-atmosphere relationship over the world. Recent investigations show that increasing sea levels in different regions is a result of climate-change impacts. Sea-level rise increases the risk of coastal floods. Coastal areas are projected to be more frequently flooded every year resulting in significant economic losses. Partially, it is attributed to monthly variations due to tidal effect or gradual increase in sea level rise due to climate change. Therefore, in management of coastal areas, the projection of changes in sea level is important. This paper aims to provide a scheme for simulation of gradual increase in the sea level in New York City. Based on the recent studies, a significant relationship exists between sea level changes and climatic variables such as sea-level temperature and pressure. Therefore these variables are used for sea-level simulation through a statistical model. Regarding the large number of climatic variables in different points that can affect the sea-level changes in New York City, factor analysis is used to determine the most effective variables in sea-level change predictions and combine them into new variables to be used in sea-level prediction relationship. The projected climatic variables by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change scenarios are used for realization of future sea-level changes.