Multi-Criteria Analysis with Geographic Information Systems in Changing Permafrost Environments: Opportunities and Limits

For northern regions underlain by permafrost, the projected increase in temperatures will greatly impact the physical properties of soils and their capacity to support infrastructure. In this context, the need to identify land parcels to build new housing in a safe and sustainable manner is pressing in Nunavik (northern Quebec, Canada). To guide residential development in these particular settings, this paper presents a GIS-based approach developed to identify terrain sensitivity to thaw-settlement and mass movements, geomorphological processes responsible for costly readaptation or relocation of infrastructure. Land-suitability assessment for residential development in permafrost regions requires the consideration of many factors that may interact in complex ways. Combining factors to assess suitability presents a number of challenges that are especially important to resolve in permafrost-region studies to guide fine-scale decisions. Using an example of a GIS system built for the village of Tasiujaq in Nunavik, this paper illustrates some of the specific challenges to the effective use of GIS for management in permafrost regions. Temporal, existential and representational limits are inherent to the use of GIS and important to consider in land planning for permafrost studies. This paper also demonstrates how permafrost science can benefit from GIS technologies, especially their capacity of adaptation and transformation to any scenarios and changes in environmental parameters.