Applying a Design-to-Evolve Approach to Early Lunar Settlements

The permanent settlement of the Moon will begin with a single human habitation, one that is designed to be both sustainable and expandable. But in order for it to be both sustainable and expandable it will be necessary to consider the economic, organizational, and legal requirements as well the technology of its design from the beginning. This paper will examine those factors and how they will impact the basic "design" of this facility. A key argument is that the facility should not be "over-designed" and that the usual "aerospace approach" to design will be counter-productive when applied to the design of a facility with mixed uses and multiple stakeholders, in a fixed location. The second theme is that we are far more likely to succeed on the Moon if we adopt an evolutionary, not a programmatic strategy towards the first settlements, and that the first facilities built, in particular, must be designed to evolve and adapt to the changing needs of the first settlement. This "design to evolve" approach will need to consider details such as: the ownership structure, facility management, and operational control. Especially important will be how users will be able to "buy in", and also how to fund infrastructure expansion as the settlement grows. The focus of the paper is on the interaction of the business model for a lunar settlement and the technical requirements for building a sustainable settlement on the Moon. Analogies with remote industrial facilities on Earth are also discussed.