A Preliminary Proposal for a Probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering Framework

This paper proposes an innovative fully probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) approach for risk assessment and design of structural systems located in hurricane-prone regions. The methodology is based on the Total Probability Theorem and disaggregates the risk assessment analysis into independent elementary components, namely hazard analysis, structural characterization, interaction analysis, structural analysis, damage analysis, and loss analysis. The proposed PBHE methodology accounts for the multi-hazard nature of hurricane events by including the separate effects of, and the interaction among, hurricane wind, flood, windborne debris, and rainfall hazard. A review of existing models with the ability to describe the different sources of hazard is performed, and a consistent vector of intensity measures for hurricane hazard analysis is proposed. The PBHE approach illustrated in this paper represents a first step toward a rational methodology for risk assessment and design of structures subjected to multi-hazard scenarios.