Emission Volume, Air Quality, and Health Effects in Japan: The Cases of Tokyo, Kawasaki, Osaka, Amagasaki, and Kita Kyusyu

This paper aims to verify the causal relationships among emission volume (mobile sources and stationary sources), air concentration, and health effects (1974–2006) in certified areas of Tokyo, Kawasaki, Osaka, Amagasaki, and Kita-Kyusyu, which were certified according to Japanese Pollution-related Health Damage Compensation law. Our first hypothesis was that an increase in the total emission volumes of suspended particulate matter (SPM), NOx, SO₂, and CO in these cities corresponded to a deterioration in the air quality. The second hypothesis was that the number of certified patients increases with the deterioration in air quality. To support the results of this correlation, the number of new patients, recovery, and mortality were assessed by a simple general equilibrium model. Finally, the comparability of the estimated results with the track record was estimated on the basis of the presence of high t-values.