The Second Generation Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS2): A ROMS-Based Modeling System

The National Ocean Service presently has an Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) for the Chesapeake Bay which generates only water levels and depth-integrated currents. As a next generation system, a fully three-dimensional, baroclinic Forecast System (CBOFS2) was developed, calibrated and validated; this system will produce water levels, currents, temperature and salinity. First, a two-month tides only simulation was conducted to validate the water levels and currents and thereafter, a synoptic hindcast simulation from June 01, 2003–September 01, 2005 was conducted to validate water levels, currents, temperature and salinity. Upon comparison with observations, CBOFS2 for the most part met the target NOS water level error criteria and for current error, the criteria were met exceptionally well; the temperature and salinity errors were frequently less than 1 C and 3 PSU respectively. Hence, the predictive accuracy of CBOFS2 warranted it being accepted as a suitable three-dimensional upgrade to CBOFS.