Utility of Climate Forecasts in Promoting Inter-Basin Transfer in the North Carolina Triangle Area

Droughts experienced by regional water supply systems often result due to reduced streamflow/precipitation potential which could occur due to varying exogenous climatic conditions such as tropical sea surface temperature (SST). Similarly, water supply systems can also experience frequent shortages in supply due to increased water demand resulting from urbanization and population growth in the region. The goal of this study is to identify a sustainable way of managing triangle area's two major reservoir systems while in the meantime improving the water supply reliability for its urban area. In this study, streamflow forecasts downscaled from climate forecasts for the winter season is developed to explore the potential for inter-basin transfer between Falls Lake of the Neuse River basin and Jordan Lake in the Cape Fear River basin. Using the 3-month ahead ensembles of streamflow forecasts, the reservoir simulation model estimates the probability of meeting the end of the season target storage for the two systems. Comparing these two probabilities, various scenarios of inter-basin transfers between the two systems are analyzed in such a way that the water quality releases from both systems are not endangered. Results show that by introducing inter-basin transfer, the reliability of the water supply for the triangle area could be increased, which would help in developing regional drought management strategies.