Port of Tacoma Engineering Estimate Validations on Large Projects

In early 2008, the Port of Tacoma was in the process of redeveloping approximately 548 acres on the Blair Hylebos Peninsula in order to build two new marine terminals and the associated road, rail and infrastructure to support the terminals. Both terminals and the road, rail, and infrastructure elements were under design by three different design consultants. Upon receipt of the 30% Design cost estimates, the Port of Tacoma undertook a revalidation of the estimated costs for the entire program. The Port of Tacoma partnered with the Washington State Department of Transportation to undertake a Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) in combination with a Value Engineering Workshop in the summer of 2008 in order to refine the scope of the program, align costs between the design groups, and identify project delivery alternatives that could reduce either the cost or schedule delivery of the project. The undertaking included the review and validation of the estimated program cost ranges; identifying program wide risk issues for schedule and cost; and then probabilistic modeling (Monte Carlo simulation) to determine the probability for delivering the project on time and on budget. The risks identified during the process were to be managed during project development, to shift odds in favor of project success. The identification of scope reductions that could result in lower costs and/or earlier project delivery provided decision-makers with important information for deliberation and ultimate determination of the Port of Tacoma's future actions.