Impact of Climate Change on Hydraulic Performance in Water Distribution Networks

The effects of climate change on municipal water distribution systems are not well known. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has forecast higher mean temperatures for the mid-latitude region of North America. The aim of the paper is to begin to understand the impact of higher temperatures on nodal demands and the mean and coefficient of variation of nodal pressures in water distribution networks. The second order second moment (SOSM) method was used to assess the impact of higher mean temperatures on the mean and coefficient of variation of nodal pressures in the Anytown network. Under maximum hour demand (MHD) and maximum day demand (MDD) with fire conditions, the warming scenarios were shown to have a detrimental effect on the ability of the Anytown network to meet minimum pressure specifications. Node location within the Anytown network influenced the impact of higher temperatures on the mean and coefficient of variation of pressure. Strategies to ensure an acceptable hydraulic performance under future warming scenarios were discussed.