Research on Forecast of Intercity Corridor Mode Share Based on the Total Trip

With the operating of the intercity train and the increased private driving, the market share of highway passenger transportation decreased sharply, which reformed the system structure of intercity corridor. Forecasting mode share of intercity corridor accurately can lead to the reasonable planning and construction of each traffic mode, and also be able to avoid vicious competition and waste of resource, as well as optimize the structure of passenger trip. Due to the short distance of intercity corridor, the time spent on urban traffic and waiting at the two terminals of the city occupies a majority of the total trip, which has a great impact on passenger's mode choice, therefore, mode share can't be calculated according to the characteristics of traffic modes between the two terminal cities; it should consider the total trip including the two terminal cities. Based on this, this paper uses Logit Model, evaluates time of each mode and cost of the total trip, and then the mode share will be worked out through converting the time to generalized time as the eigenfunction value, finally this paper takes Chengdu-Chongqing corridor in 2020 as an example to forecast its mode share.