Towards the Development of the NOS Nowcast/Forecast System for Delaware River and Bay

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is in the process of developing the now cast/forecast system for Delaware River and Bay from the head of tide at Trenton, NJ extending through the Bay entrance out onto the continental shelf to supplement its Physical Oceanographic Real Time System (PORTS), which was installed in 2003 to provide water surface elevation, temperature, salinity, and meteorological information. In conjunction with this effort, a Model Evaluation Environment (MEE) has been developed, which involves the comparison of both structured and unstructured three-dimensional hydrodynamic model results versus the National Ocean Service (NOS). Delaware River and Bay 1984 Circulation Survey measurements of water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperature during the 21 March through 7 September 1984 evaluation period. The MEE provides additional validation data particularly for currents and density that are not available within the PORTS. Initial MEE results are presented and additional simulations over two shorter 15-day periods using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), one of the structured grid models, are used to further guide the development of the Delaware River and Bay Nowcast/Forecast System. The effects of a spatially varying bottom friction, subtidal water level forcings at the Chesapeake and Delaware (C&D) Canal boundary, and navigation channel bathymetry and upriver storage areas on water level and current response are studied. POM is also used to examine the need for a revised bottom friction treatment and flood/dry capability. In conclusion, plans for further development and testing are presented.