Development and Evolution of Operational Forecast Systems for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment in NOAA's National Ocean Service

NOAA's National Ocean Service applies hydrodynamic models for the development, transition and implementation of operational forecast systems in U.S. estuaries, ports, lakes and the coastal ocean. These models and systems have applications in the support of safe and efficient marine navigation and emergency response as well as marine geospatial and ecological applications. There are currently nine water bodies in which operational forecast systems are functioning (the Chesapeake Bay, the Port of New York and New Jersey, Galveston Bay, the St. Johns River, and the five Great Lakes). Operational forecast systems are under development for the Columbia River, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay, Cook Inlet, and elsewhere. Once tested, fully evaluated, and deemed accurate by National Ocean Service standards, experimental forecast systems are transitioned into the operational environment. The technical components of a real-time estuarine modeling system are described in terms of a "standard" Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) which increases the efficiency of research, development, transition and operations. The COMF includes the essential operational management of observations and forecasts of atmospheric, coastal and riverine inputs, as well as the operational quality control and dissemination of results. It also includes protocols and software for the skill assessment of operational forecast systems. The COMF abides by Integrated Ocean Observing System and Earth System Modeling Framework standards. It is intended to stimulate a community approach to coastal modeling by providing tools, observational data, and a Model Evaluation Environment with which to configure, execute, and determine model uncertainties. A future strategy of transitioning from individual port or estuarine models to a regional modeling approach is also being developed to enhance the efficiency of development and operations.