Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
On the Use of Probabilistic Wind Fields for Forecasting Storm Surge and Inundation
Publication: Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2007)
Abstract
Hurricanes are widely recognized as one of the most costly natural disasters impacting the U. S. Strong winds and coastal inundation can lead to significant property damage and loss of life. This paper discusses the surge and inundation response of Charlotte Harbor, FL to inaccuracies in forecasting a hurricane's projected path using probabilistically-based ensembles of synthetic wind and pressure fields. Two methods to generate the ensembles are developed which are based on cross-track errors between the historical "best track" and forecast model guidance from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Charley (2004). Using CH3D-SSMS, the resulting surge and inundation response for each ensemble member is combined to produce Maximum of Maximum (MOM) and probability of exceedance (POE) products. Comparisons show that both methods yield similar products and that assuming a normal distribution of errors does not significantly impact results.
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© 2008 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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Justin R. Davis
Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, 345 Weil Hall, P. O. Box 116580, Gainesville, Florida 32611-6580
Vladimir A. Paramygin
Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, 345 Weil Hall, P. O. Box 116580, Gainesville, Florida 32611-6580
Y. Peter Sheng
M.ASCE
Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, 345 Weil Hall, P. O. Box 116580, Gainesville, Florida 32611-6580
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
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