Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Hindcasting Potential Hurricane Impacts on Rapidly Changing Barrier Islands
Authors: Hilary F. Stockdon [email protected], David M. Thompson, and Asbury H. Sallenger, Jr.Author Affiliations
Publication: Coastal Sediments '07
Abstract
Hindcasts of the coastal impact of Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, using a storm-impact scaling model that compares hurricane-induced water levels to local dune morphology, were found to have an accuracy of 68% in predicting the occurrence of one of four impact regimes: swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Errors were overwhelming under-predictions of the regime where the observed response was more extreme than had been expected. This is related to the evolution of the profile during the storm. Mean pre-storm dune elevations decreased by 1.9 m over the 75-km long island as most of the dunes were completely eroded during the storm. Dramatic morphologic change during a hurricane makes barrier islands more vulnerable to overwash and inundation than will be predicted based on pre-storm dune parameters. Incorporation of the timing of rising water levels relative to storm-induced profile evolution is required to improve model accuracy.
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© 2007 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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U.S. Geological Survey, Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, 600 4th St. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701. E-mail: [email protected]
David M. Thompson
U.S. Geological Survey, Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, 600 4th St. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701
Asbury H. Sallenger, Jr.
U.S. Geological Survey, Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, 600 4th St. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701
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