Simulation System for the Probabilistic Optimization of Rubble Mound and Vertical Structures

This paper presents a simulation system for the probabilistic optimization of rubble mound and vertical structures. System development extends previous work by the authors on deterministic optimal design procedures to include probabilistic principles. Traditional optimization analysis considers the balance between initial construction costs and long-term maintenance costs and provides a means for selecting the structure design that corresponds to the least total cost. The probabilistic optimization method presented in this paper introduces probability distributions for critical parameters including wave conditions, costs, and structural performance measures. The analysis produces statistical estimates of optimal design values rather than a single deterministic value. The utility of probabilistic optimization is relevant where there is considerable uncertainty regarding hydraulic/foundation conditions and costs for breakwater construction. This is often the case during planning or in remote locations. The paper presents an example application of the probabilistic simulation system for the design of artificial islands in New York Harbor.