Quantifying and Communicating Model Uncertainty for Decisionmaking in the Everglades

One of this nation's largest ecosystem restoration projects is currently taking place in South Florida. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Project is a complex and expensive one, requiring a sequence of decisions over the next three decades in an attempt to preserve and enhance what remains of the Greater Everglades Region of South Florida. There is considerable uncertainty with respect to how this ecosystem functions and what decisions will be most effective in restoring it. This paper outlines some of the issues associated with estimating, quantifying, and communicating these uncertainties to various stakeholders, and to those who are responsible for decisionmaking.