Risk Analysis in Disaster Planning by Superposition of Infrastructure and Societal Networks

This paper addresses disaster planning for infrastructures and their related societal entities through innovative modeling that coordinates multiple networks against the contingency scenarios that disrupt plans for mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Across disciplines, interdependent infrastructures and related societal entities are increasingly amenable to characterization as mathematical networks. Effective disaster planning for complex systems is known to rely on the identification and management of a multitude of diverse contingency scenarios. Modeling of such contingencies in disaster planning for interdependent infrastructures and societal entities can proceed with a superposition of multiple network models. We study the interactions among contingency scenarios and diverse superposed networks. The developed theory and methodology will guide the multidisciplinary selection and management of relevant worst-case scenarios, an essential activity for disaster planning in large-scale, complex systems.