Tsunami Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Industrial Ports of Mexico

Computer simulation is an efficient tool to determine the extent and consequences of tsunami impact in naval and industrial port facilities and coastal urban developments, allowing the adequate design of coastal protection and an optimization in the use of the available response resources. Middle America Trench generated tsunamis are simulated assuming that the initial condition is an ocean water disturbance produced by an earthquake sea-floor deformation. Deep-water linear wave theory for the generation and far ocean propagation, and shallow water non-linear wave theory for the propagation near the shore and the interaction with the coast, are considered. To model the flooding and recession at the coast, non-fixed boundaries with discharges conditioned to the state of the water level at the borders, are used. The equations are solved through an explicit central finite-difference leap-frog algorithm for interconnected grids of different sizes. Two cases of tsunamis which may represent a low and a medium risk for Mexico, similar to the 1985 and 1995 events, were satisfactorily simulated. The impact of an extreme eventual tsunami of high risk but low probability of occurrence was also estimated. With this information, tsunami inundation maps showing water runup, flooding extension and eventual recurrence time for two main industrial ports of Mexico, including recommendations for urban development measures to reduce their vulnerability, were produced. This information also helps for hazard prevention planning and the design of adequate coastal protection for industrial and naval port installations.