Protecting Midwestern Streams from Climate Change Impacts

This paper presents results of a study to assess the impacts of climate change on Midwestern streams and the ability of alternative regulations to maintain critical stream conditions. The study focuses on two generic types of regulations, those that restrict withdrawals to a constant flowrate at all times and those that allow withdrawals to increase and decrease with streamflow. Trading of water withdrawal permits is also considered as an adjunt to both policies. The study uses a modeling technique based on the SWAT model, applied to data for a Midwestern river basin. Streamflow was assumed stressed by agricultural irrigation, which is most intense during times when natural streamflows are at their lowest even without such stresses. The study compares the different types of regulation in terms of the tradeoff they achieve between users' profits and maintaing critical stream conditions. Also vulnerability and resilience were estimated by integrating streamflow deficit.