The Effects of Climate Change on Water Management Strategies and Demands in the Central Valley of California

This paper provides preliminary results of a study designed to determine the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Central Valley of California. A general circulation model is used to derive meteorological forcing functions that, in turn, provide inputs for a macroscale hydrological model which simulates streamflows used to drive a water management model. The water management model characterizes the performance of the coordinated State Water Project and Central Valley Project under altered climates. Preliminary results from these models indicate that both short and long-term climate change will have important implications for future policy and operational decisions in the region. Of particular interest are the effects of the current dynamic operational strategy and design on hydropower generation, water supply, fish endangerment, and flood control.