The Use of ENSO Based Streamflow Forecasts for Reservoir Operations in Colombia

The authors propose a model to forecast streamflows, which utilizes the relationship found between El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the streamflow of Colombian rivers. The relationship between ENSO and Colombian river discharges was explored by the authors in a previous study. Exceedence probability curves are developed using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and the ENSO indicators selected in the previous study. The exceedence probability curves are used to simulate five years of the streamflow series. Dynamic Programming (DP) is then utilized to develop reservoir operations policies. To illustrate the proposed model, the case study of the Nare River and the El Peñol Reservoir in Antioquia, Colombia, is presented.