Influence of Capacity Constraints on Airline Fleet Mix

This paper examines the influence of airport capacity constraints on airline fleet mix, and the potential for an increase in average aircraft size to allow an airport to serve more passengers with the same number of aircraft movements. It has been common for airport traffic forecasts to assume a continuing increase in average aircraft size in the future. However, in order to understand the likely future trends in average aircraft size, as well as strategies that the airport might pursue to encourage favorable trends, it is necessary to understand the competitive dynamics of the various markets served by the airport, and the factors that determine the size of equipment that airlines will use in those markets. The paper addresses this issue by analyzing recent trends in different markets at a major U.S. West Coast airport and presents the results of an empirical study of the influence of airport delays on the average size of aircraft used in domestic U.S. markets. The paper concludes by discussing the prospects for airport capacity constraints to influence airlines to make use of larger aircraft.