Proposed Uncertainty Assessment Methodology for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering

Uncertainty estimates are imperative for evaluation of experimental errors when using data directly (experimental design, modeling, and monitoring) or for validation of numerical simulations. In recent decades, a plethora of methodologies for uncertainty assessment have been developed, improved, and implemented by various professional societies. Most of the recent efforts are focused on consistent and uniform application of these methodologies. Among the most recent updates of the uncertainty assessment methodologies, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) standard S-071-1995 shows a great potential for generalization in a variety of engineering fields, including data quality and reliability analysis in the hydraulic engineering and water resources. This standard provides a rational and practical framework for uncertainty assessment that is compatible with most of the current methodologies within the technical community. The present paper summarizes the main features of the AIAA standard. To aid in application of the methodology, guidelines for integration of uncertainty assessment into the current engineering practice are also discussed.