Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Uncertainty Modeling in RiverWare
Authors: John C. Carron, Ph.D., Edith A. Zagona, Ph.D., and Terrance J. Fulp, Ph.D.Author Affiliations
Publication: Watershed Management and Operations Management 2000
Abstract
In recent years, management considerations for reservoirs have been expanded to include environmental and recreational objectives. Uncertainty modeling contributes to better reservoir management by quantifying the uncertainties and determining the sources of significant uncertainty in predicting reservoir and river conditions which affect environmental habitats and recreational conditions. RiverWare employs a first-order, second-moment approach to modeling uncertainty. The method is described in this paper and applied to an example on Lake Mohave on the Lower Colorado River. Comparison of historical forecasts with observed data can provide managers with insight into operational policies which result in greater system uncertainty. Identifying these sources of uncertainty can guide managers in the development of future operational guidelines.
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© 2000 American Society of Civil Engineering.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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ASCE Technical Topics:
- Bodies of water (by type)
- Business management
- Comparative studies
- Continuum mechanics
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Forecasting
- Hydraulic engineering
- Hydraulic structures
- Infrastructure
- Lakes
- Managers
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Motion (dynamics)
- Personnel (type)
- Personnel management
- Practice and Profession
- Recreation
- Research methods (by type)
- Reservoirs
- River engineering
- Rivers and streams
- Solid mechanics
- Statistics
- Uncertainty principles
- Urban and regional development
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Water-based recreation
Authors
Affiliations
John C. Carron, Ph.D.
Hydrosphere Resource Consultants, 1002 Walnut, Suite 200, Boulder, CO 80302
Edith A. Zagona, Ph.D.
The Center for Advanced Decision Making for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES), University of Colorado, Campus Box 421, Boulder, CO 80309-0421
Terrance J. Fulp, Ph.D.
United States Bureau of Reclamation, c/o CADSWES, University of Colorado, Campus Box 421, Boulder, CO 80309-0421
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