The Danger to Satellites from Meteor Storms—A Case Study of the Leonids

Impact probabilities are calculated for Leonid meteoroids acting upon space platforms in low Earth orbit. It is found that at times of meteor storm activity the meteoroid impact probability increases by factors in excess 10⁴ of that from the sporadic background of meteoroids. Currently, the most likely stream to yield a meteor storm is that of the Leonids. It is probable that the Leonid stream will produce at least one and perhaps several meteor storms during the last years of the 1990's. We present impact probabilities on satellites based on the historically observed flux of Leonids. In addition, we present our current predictions for the peak strength and time of occurrence for Leonid showers during the late 1990's and early 21st Century based on numerical simulation of the formation and evolution of the stream. The impact shielding presently incorporated into space platform design may not be adequate under Leonid storm conditions. Several risk curtailment scenarios are, however, open to space platform operators. An analysis of space platform impact probabilities from meteoroids within the Leonid stream suggests that the critical shielding concept outlined for the proposed Space Station will result, even under the most extreme of circumstances, in probabilities of no penetrative impacts above 99%.