Incorporating Project Complexities in Risk Assessment: Case of an Airport Expansion Construction Project
Publication: Journal of Management in Engineering
Volume 38, Issue 6
Abstract
In today’s construction projects, which are getting more complex as a consequence of especially technical, organizational, and external aspects, complexities are considered a major source of risks. Moreover, risks may turn to complexity-creating elements and propagate additional risks through a bidirectional interaction. Complex construction projects, typically large-scale dynamic endeavors, require the realization of a high number of interdependent tasks through the consumption of various resources such as time, money, labor, and materials. In such projects, while complexities are usually assumed to be given or embedded, due to the subjective and dynamic characteristics of complexities, a tailored approach is required in order to manage them holistically without ignoring their interactions with risks. In this context, the aim of this study is to propose a practical approach that could be utilized to incorporate project complexities in the risk assessment of complex construction projects. The proposed approach entails the integrated usage of risk registers, risk breakdown structures, and complexity-incorporated risk-influence diagrams along with the utilization of a previously developed complexity assessment framework. The underlying basic assumption was that the complexities could directly or indirectly trigger risks, while the risks in turn affect the project objectives. The implementation of the approach in the case of an airport expansion construction project showed that linking the risks to project objectives starting from complexities based on this assumption is possible. In this way, it was shown that multidimensional cause-effect relationships between the complexities and risks, among the risks themselves, and the impact of this interaction on project objectives could be detected and diagrammatically evaluated. Furthermore, it was observed that incorporating complexities in the earlier stages of a project would lead to improvement in the assessment of risks. Considering the results of the case study, the proposed approach has the potential to contribute to improved risk management.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.
References
Ackermann, F., C. Eden, T. Williams, and S. Howick. 2007. “Systemic risk assessment: A case study.” J. Oper. Res. Soc. 58 (1): 39–51. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602105.
Ackermann, F., S. Howick, J. Quigley, L. Wallsy, and T. Houghton. 2014. “Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 238 (1): 290–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.03.035.
Ahn, S., S. Shokri, S. Lee, C. T. Haas, and R. C. G. Haas. 2017. “Exploratory study on the effectiveness of interface-management practices in dealing with project complexity in large-scale engineering and construction projects.” J. Manage. Eng. 33 (2): 04016039. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000488.
Baccarini, D. 1996. “The concept of project complexity—A review.” Int. J. Project Manage. 14 (4): 201–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00093-3.
Bakker, H., and J. de Kleijn. 2014. “Management of engineering projects.” Accessed October 7, 2021. https://www.napnetwerk.nl/publicatie/management-of-engineering-projects-people-are-key?id=356.
Bosch-Rekveldt, M. 2011. “Managing project complexity: A study into adapting early project phases to improve project performance in large engineering projects.” Ph.D. thesis, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft Univ. of Technology.
Bosch-Rekveldt, M., Y. Jongkind, H. Mooi, H. Bakker, and A. Verbraeck. 2011. “Grasping project complexity in large engineering projects: The TOE (technical, organizational and environmental) framework.” Int. J. Project Manage. 29 (6): 728–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.07.008.
Braglia, M., and M. Frosolini. 2014. “An integrated approach to implement project management information systems within the extended enterprise.” Int. J. Project Manage. 32 (1): 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.12.003.
Chapman, R. J. 2016. “A framework for examining the dimensions and characteristics of complexity inherent within rail megaprojects.” Int. J. Project Manage. 34 (6): 937–956. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.001.
Chen, Y., L. Zhu, Z. Hu, S. Chen, and X. Zheng. 2022. “Risk propagation in multilayer heterogeneous network of coupled system of large engineering project.” J. Manage. Eng. 38 (3): 04022003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0001022.
Cooke-Davies, T. 2011. Aspects of complexity: Managing projects in a complex world. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.
Dao, B., S. Kermanshachi, J. Shane, and S. Anderson. 2017. “Exploring and assessing project complexity.” J. Manage. Eng. 143 (5): 04016126. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001275.
Emblemsvåg, J. 2020. “Risk and complexity—On complex risk management.” J. Risk Finance 21 (1): 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-09-2019-0165.
Erol, H., İ. Dikmen, G. Atasoy, and M. T. Birgonul. 2020. “Exploring the relationship between complexity and risk in megaconstruction projects.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 146 (12): 04020138. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001946.
Fang, C., and F. Marle. 2012. “A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management.” Decis. Support Syst. 52 (3): 635–644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2011.10.021.
Geraldi, J., H. Maylor, and T. Williams. 2011. “Now, let’s make it really complex (complicated): A systematic review of the complexities of projects.” Int. J. Oper. Prod. Manage. 31 (9): 966–990. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443571111165848.
Grey, S. 2014. “What does risk look like in a complex project?” Managing Risk in Projects. Accessed October 10, 2021. https://broadleaf.com.au/resource-material/what-does-risk-look-like-in-a-complex-project/.
Hartono, B. 2018. “From project risk to complexity analysis: A systematic classification.” Int. J. Managing Projects Bus. 11 (3): 734–760. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-09-2017-0108.
Hertogh, M., and E. Westerveld. 2010. Playing with complexity: Management and organization of large infrastructure projects. Rotterdam, Netherlands: Erasmus Univ. Rotterdam.
Hillson, D. 2003. “Using a risk breakdown structure in project management.” J. Facil. Manage. 2 (1): 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1108/14725960410808131.
Hillson, D. A. 2002. “Using the risk breakdown structure (RBS) to understand risks.” In Proc., 33rd Annual Project Management Institute Seminars & Symp. (PMI 2002). Newtown Square, PA: PMI.
Jaafari, A. 2001. “Management of risks, uncertainties and opportunities on projects: Time for a fundamental shift.” Int. J. Project Manage. 19 (2): 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00047-2.
Luo, L., Q. He, J. J. Jaselskis, and J. Xie. 2017a. “Construction project complexity: Research trends and implications.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 143 (7): 04017019. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001306.
Luo, L., Q. He, J. Xie, D. Yang, and G. Wu. 2017b. “Investigating the relationship between project complexity and success in complex construction projects.” J. Manage. Eng. 33 (2): 04016036. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000471.
Ma, L., and H. Fu. 2020. “Exploring the influence of project complexity on the mega construction project success: A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 27 (9): 2429–2449. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-12-2019-0679.
Nasirzadeh, F., A. Afshar, M. Khanzadi, and S. Howick. 2008. “Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modelling for construction risk management.” Construct. Manage. Econ. 26 (11): 1197–1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802459924.
Nicholas, J., and H. Steyn. 2017. Project management for engineering, business and technology. London: Taylor & Francis.
Padalkar, M., and S. Gopinath. 2016. “Are complexity and uncertainty distinct concepts in project management? A taxonomical examination from literature.” Int. J. Project Manage. 34 (4): 688–700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.02.009.
Perminova, O., M. Gustafsson, and K. Wikström. 2008. “Defining uncertainty in projects—A new perspective.” Int. J. Project Manage. 26 (1): 73–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.08.005.
PMI (Project Management Institute). 2021. A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide). 7th ed. Newtown Square, PA: PMI.
Poveda-Bautista, R., J. A. Diego-Mas, and D. Leon-Medina. 2018. “Measuring the project management complexity: The case of information technology projects.” Complexity 2018 (May): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/6058480.
Qazi, A., J. Quigley, A. Dickson, and K. Kirytopoulos. 2016. “Project complexity and risk management (ProCrim): Towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects.” Int. J. Project Manage. 34 (7): 1183–1198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.008.
Qureshi, S. M., and C. Kang. 2015. “Analysing the organizational factors of project complexity using structural equation modelling.” Int. J. Project Manage. 33 (1): 165–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.04.006.
Rad, E. K. M., M. Sun, and F. Bosché. 2017. “Complexity for megaprojects in the energy sector.” J. Manage. Eng. 33 (4): 04017009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000517.
Raz, T., and D. Hillson. 2005. “A comparative review of risk management standards.” Risk Manage. 7 (4): 53–66. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8240227.
San Cristóbal, J. R., L. Carral, E. Diaz, J. A. Fraguela, and G. Iglesias. 2018. “Complexity and project management: A general overview.” Complexity 2018 (Oct): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/4891286.
Simon, H. A. 1962. “The architecture of complexity.” Proc. Am. Philos. Soc. 106 (6): 467–482.
Siraj, N. B., and A. R. Fayek. 2021. “Hybrid fuzzy system dynamics model for analyzing the impacts of interrelated risk and opportunity events on project contingency.” Can. J. Civ. Eng. 48 (8): 979–992. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2020-0032.
Sterman, J. D. 1992. System dynamics modeling for project management. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Taroun, A. 2014. “Towards a better modelling and assessment of construction risk: Insights from a literature review.” Int. J. Project Manage. 32 (1): 101–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.03.004.
Thomé, A. M. T., L. F. Scavarda, A. Scavarda, and F. E. S. de Souza Thomé. 2016. “Similarities and contrasts of complexity, uncertainty, risks, and resilience in supply chains and temporary multi-organization projects.” Int. J. Project Manage. 34 (7): 1328–1346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.10.012.
Vidal, L.-A., and F. Marle. 2008. “Understanding project complexity: Implications on project management.” Kybernetes 37 (8): 1094–1110. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684920810884928.
Vidal, L.-A., F. Marle, and J.-C. Bocquet. 2011. “Measuring project complexity using the analytic hierarchy process.” Int. J. Project Manage. 29 (6): 718–727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.07.005.
Waldrop, M. 1993. Complexity: The emerging science at the edge of order and chaos. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Williams, T. 2017. “The nature of risk in complex projects.” Project Manage. J. 48 (4): 55–66. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697281704800405.
Yang, L., J. Lou, and X. Zhao. 2021. “Risk response of complex projects: Risk association network method.” J. Manage. Eng. 37 (4): 05021004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000916.
Zhang, Y., and Z. Fan. 2014. “An optimization method for selecting project risk response strategies.” Int. J. Project Manage. 32 (3): 412–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.06.006.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 20, 2022
Accepted: Jul 14, 2022
Published online: Sep 10, 2022
Published in print: Nov 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Feb 10, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Yutong Xue, Yun Le, Kaiwen Jiang, Xueqing Gan, Collaborative Management Framework for Interorganizational Risk in Megaprojects Based on Metanetwork, Journal of Management in Engineering, 10.1061/JMENEA.MEENG-6073, 40, 5, (2024).
- Ilias Krystallis, Zine Al Abidine Laraqui Mahi, Francesco Di Maddaloni, Flexible Infrastructure Design: A Real Options Reasoning Approach to Navigating Uncertainty in Large-Scale Projects, Journal of Management in Engineering, 10.1061/JMENEA.MEENG-5678, 40, 3, (2024).